The Asset Guidance Group Weekly Update For the week ending September 23, 2022

3 Things… 

  1. Equity Trends: the S&P500 closed just above its June 2022 low, trend is DOWN and 12.87% below its 200-day MA; the NASDAQ closed slightly higher above its June 2022 low relative to the S&P500’s close  as depicted above, and is about 16.24% below its 200-day MA, DOWN trend firmly in place; Dow is 11.30% below its 200-day MA; 5% of the S&P 500 and 16% of the NASDAQ, respectively, are above their 50-Days; Bulls18:Bears61; VIX 29.92; [1]
  2. Bonds: Bond yields jumped this week after another major rate hike from the Federal Reserve, flashing a warning of market distress. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield on Friday climbed to 4.266%, notching a 15-year high, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury hit 3.829%, the highest in 11 years. Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%. [2]
  3. Sectors: Best 3-month sectors: Utilities (+6.51%); Consumer Discretionary (+3.63%); Energy (+0.83%); Crypto/Bitcoin -2.70%; [3]

This Week’s Quotable

“By basically endorsing the idea of a recession, Powell set off the emotional phase of the bear market. The bad news is you are seeing and you will continue to see it in the near term in indiscriminate selling of virtually every asset. The good news is that tends to be that the end game of virtually every bear market we’ve ever witnessed, and it’s coming in September and October, where that has historically been the normal state of affairs.” – Julian Emanuel, head of equity, derivatives and quantitative strategy at Evercore ISI, Friday September 23, 2022 reported by CNBC’s “Market Insider.” [5]

Recent Highlights

  • Initial Claims increased to 213,000 (09/22)
  • Crude Inventories increased by 1.1 million bpd (09/21)
  • Existing Home Sales declined 0.4% (09/21)
  • Building Permits decreased 10% (09/20)

In the Markets

U.S. stocks ended lower for the third straight session on Thursday on mounting fears that the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes may push the economy into recession. The growing concerns over an economic slowdown following the announcement of a massive 75-basis point rate hike saw Treasury yields jump once again on Thursday, leading to a huge selloff in growth stocks. All three major indexes ended in negative territory.

How Did The Benchmarks Perform?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) slid 0.4% or 107.10 points to finish at 30,076.68 points.

The S&P 500 declined 0.8% or 31.94 points to end at 3,757.99 points. Consumer discretionary and financial stocks were the worst performers.

The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) and the Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF) lost 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively. Ten of the 11 sectors of the benchmark index ended in negative territory.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1.4% or 153.39 points to close at 11,066.81 points.

The fear-gauge CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was down 2.29% to 27.35. A total of 11.39 billion shares were traded on Thursday, higher than the last 20-session average of 10.91 billion.

Recession Fears Grip Markets

Investors’ morale was already down on fears of an economic slowdown in the wake of the Fed’s aggressive rate-hike policy to tame surging inflation. Stocks tumbled on Wednesday after the Fed announced yet another jumbo interest rate hike. The Fed has now increased interest rates by 75 basis points for the third time to take it to the range of 3% to 3.25%.

On Thursday, stocks traded mostly lower following Wednesday’s selloff after the Fed raised interest rates five times this year and also indicated more rate hikes in the coming months. Policymakers said that they plan another 125-basis point hike in interest rates by this year end which would take the benchmark interest rate to a midpoint of 4.40%, before topping it out at 4.60% in 2023.

Investors were rattled by the Fed’s future plans and further concerns grew of the economy slipping into recession. This weighed on stocks leading to massive selloffs once again on Thursday.

Bond yields once again jumped on Thursday. The 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields hitting new multi-year highs. Growth stocks, particularly semiconductors stocks took a major hit. Shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) tumbled 5.3%, while Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) plummeted 6.7%. 

Consumer discretionary stocks were one of the worst performers on the S&P 500 index once again. Shares of Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) fell 5.4%, while Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) declined 4.9%.

Economic Data

In economic data released on Thursday, the Labor Department said jobless claims totaled 213,000 for the week ending Sep 17, increasing 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 208,000. The four-week moving average decreased to 216,750, a decline of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 222,750.

Continuing claims came in at 1,379,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s numbers were revised down by 2,000 from 1,403,000 to 1,401,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,404,750, a decrease of 8,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 1,413,000. [6]

Sources: [1][3][4] Stockcharts.com; [2] cnbc.com; stockcharts.com; [5] From the Fed to Europe’s currency crisis, here’s what’s behind this selloff in financial markets (cnbc.com); [6] Zacks Professional Services, “Today’s Key Market and Economic News” for Friday September 23, 2022; 

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