The Asset Guidance Group Weekly Update For the week ending October 28, , 2022

3 Things… 

  1. Equity Trends: S&P500 finally traded above its previous range and broke through its 50-day, trend continues to be DOWN and about 5% below its 200-day MA; the NASDAQ however continues to be range-bound after this week’s tech-wreck in disappointing earnings, and is about 11% below its 200-day MA, strong DOWN trend remains intact; Dow has broken out above 32,000 and is 0.5% ABOVE its 200-day MA. About 63% of the S&P 500 and 40% of the NASDAQ, respectively, are above their 50-Days; Bulls27:Bears46; VIX 26.04 [1]
  2. Bonds: 10Y 4.01%; 2Y 4.406%–Highest since 2007; 30Y 4.131% [2]
  3. Sectors: Best 3-month sectors: Energy (+20.08%); Financials (+3.00%); Industrials (+1.15%); Crypto/Bitcoin +1.64%; [3]

This Week’s Quotable

“Apple’s really the lone star, if you will, of the mega-cap tech stocks. It’s just a unique market where bad is terrible, but OK is good, so, on a relative basis, it’s spectacular.” Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Management, as reported by CNBC Friday. [5]

Recent Highlights

  • PCE/Core PCE Inflation increased to 6.2%/5.1% (10/28)
  • Personal Income increased 0.4% (10/28)
  • Personal Spending increased 0.6% (10/28)
  • Personal Savings Rate decreased to 3.1% (10/28)

In the Markets

The Dow closed higher for the fifth-straight session on Thursday as fresh data showed that the GDP grew faster than expected in the third quarter, which gave investors’ confidence a boost. However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower following a mixed batch of earnings reports, while investors awaited earnings reports from some tech giants.

How Did The Benchmarks Perform?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.6% or 194.17 points to end at 32,033.28 points.

The S&P 500 declined 0.6% or 23.30 points to close at 3,807.30 points. Communication services and tech stocks were the worst performers on the index.

The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR (XLC) fell 4.7%, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) declined 1.1%.  Five of the 11 sectors of the benchmark index ended in negative territory.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 1.6% or 178.32 points to close at 10,792.67 points.

The fear-gauge CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.40% to 27.39. Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.18-to-1 ratio. On Nasdaq, a 1.10-to-1 ratio favored declining issues. A total of 11.36 billion shares were traded on Thursday, lower than the last 20-session average of 11.59 billion.

Investors Regain Confidence

The Dow managed to close in the green on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended in negative territory. On Thursday, markets opened on a positive note after new data showed that third-quarter GDP grew 2.6% on an annualized basis, which was also higher than economists’ expectations of 2.3%.

The positive data gave investors’ confidence a boost, as it indicated waning inflation. Investors rushed to buy stocks linked to the economy’s recovery. Other, economic data also came in quite impressive sending stocks on a rally. Also, the fresh data gave hope to investors that the Fed might now consider easing its rates after its November policy meeting.

The Dow rallied on Thursday to close in the green for the fifth straight day after companies like Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) posted solid quarterly results.

Caterpillar reported third-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings per share of $3.95, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.19 per share. Shares of Caterpillar rallied 7.7%.

McDonald’s reported quarterly earnings of $2.68 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.57 per share. Shares of Caterpillar jumped 3.3%.

However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued to suffer on Thursday as mixed earnings reports from a batch of companies made investors worried once again. Tech stocks took a beating on Thursday after Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) reported disappointing third-quarter results and gave a weak fourth-quarter forecast.

Meta Platforms reported third-quarter 2022 earnings of $1.64 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.77% and declining 49.1% year over year. Shares of Meta Platforms plummeted 24.6%.

Shares of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) declined 2%, while Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) declined 0.6%. Tech stocks are still taking a beating and are weighing on Nasdaq, which saw the index ending in the red once again.

Economic Data

In other important economic data released on Thursday, the headline inflation rose 4.2%, declining from 7.3%, according to a gauge used by the Fed.

Durable-goods orders increased 0.4% in September, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.

The Labor Department said on Thursday that jobless claims totaled 217,000 for the week ending Oct 22, increasing 3,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 214,000. The four-week moving average decreased to 219,000, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 212,250.

Continuing claims came in at s 1,438,000, an increase of 55,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s numbers were revised down by 2,000 from 1,385,000 to 1,383,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,387,500, an increase of 23,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 1,364,500. [6]

Sources: [1][3][4] Stockcharts.com; [2] cnbc.com; stockcharts.com; [5] Dow rallies 700 points on Friday, heads for fourth-straight winning week (cnbc.com); [6] Zacks Professional Services, “Today’s Key Market and Economic News” for Friday October 28, 2022; 

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