The Asset Guidance Group Weekly Update For the week ending August 19 , 2022

3 Things… 

  1. Trends/Bonds: S&P500 reversed trend this week after piercing its 200-day MA, momentum to the upside–look to retest support; NASDAQ is now about 5.5% below its 200-day MA, testing support at 12,666/downtrend  fading but unchanged; 87% of the S&P 500 and 64% of the NASDAQ, respectively, are above their 50-Days; Bulls33:Bears37; VIX 20.71; [1] The yield on the benchmark  was up 9 basis points at 2.972% at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the yield on the  traded up 7.5 basis points to 3.216%. The weekly 2-year Treasury note/10-year Treasury note Spread fell to 1.12. Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%. [2]
  2. Sectors: Best 3-month sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+17.30%); Tech (+13.42); Consumer Staples (+10.16); Crypto/Bitcoin $21,432.41; [3]
  3. Structured Note Values
    1. XLE/XOP Lowest, XLE Pricing Value 3/25/22: 78.75, Current: 79.59, Delta +1.07%; XOP Pricing Value 3/25/22: 138.60, Current Value: 142.96, Delta +3.15%
    2. Lower of GDX/GDXJ; GDX Pricing Value: 4/29/22: 34.99, Current: 25.30 Delta -27.69%; GDXJ Pricing Value 4/29/22: 42.95, Current: 31.41 Delta -26.87%
    3. Lower of GDX/GDXJ; GDX Pricing Value: 5/26/22: 32.39, Current: 25.30 Delta -21.89%; GDXJ Pricing Value 5/26/22: 39.67, Current: 31.41, Delta -20.82%
    4. ARKK Pricing Value 6/15/22: 39.42, Current: 44.60, Delta +13.14
    5. ARKK Pricing Value 7/15/22: 44.11, Current: 44.60, Delta +1.11%
    6. SPX Pricing Value 7/18/22: 3863.16, Current 4230.16, Delta +9.50%
    7. RTY Pricing Value 7/18/22: 1744.37, Current: 1959.40, Delta +12.33%
    8. NDX Pricing Value 7/18/22: 11,452.42, Current: 12,695.16, Delta 10.85% [4]

This Week’s Quotable

“I wouldn’t expect a complete reversal going back to the June lows or something like that, however, the choppiness we’re seeing today and this week does reflect a lot of the bear case that’s out there. I think seeing the market trade sideways or seeing a bit of a pause in that rally definitely makes sense based on some of the facts that we’re seeing out there.” FBB Capital Partners’ Mike Bailey said on CNBC’s “Squawkbox” Friday August 19, 2022. [5]

Recent Highlights

  • Existing Home sales fell by 5.9% (08/18)
  • Initial Claims decreased to 250,000 (08/18)
  • Retail Sales remained flat (08/17)
  • Housing Starts decreased to 1.446 million units (08/16)

In the Markets

Wall Street closed slightly higher on Thursday following mixed earnings results of the retail sector. A few economic data released yesterday were also mixed. All the three major stock indexes ended in positive territory.

How Did The Benchmarks Perform?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.1% to close at 33,999.04. Notably, 16 components of the 30-stock index ended in positive territory while 14 in red. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished at 12,965.34, gaining 0.2% due to good performance of large-cap technology stocks.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.2% to end at 4,283.74. Seven out of the 11 broad sectors of the benchmark index closed in positive zone while four in red. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) jumped 2.7% while the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE) fell 0.7%. 

The fear-gauge CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was down 1.7% to 19.56. A total of 9.43 billion shares were traded Thursday, lower than the last 20-session average of 10.89 billion. Advancers outnumbered [decliners] on the NYSE by a 1.36-to-1 ratio. On Nasdaq, a 1.18-to-1 ratio favored advancing issues.

Mixed Q2 Earnings

We are at the last leg of the second-quarter 2022 earnings season. So far, the results are better-than expected. The sole major sector that is yet to report fully is the retail sector. Market participants were concerned how this sector had performed in the last quarter as a few retail giants have given warning regarding weak consumer spending.

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) reported strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The company posted adjusted earnings of $0.42 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.32. Net sales of $3,561 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,435.7 million.

BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings Inc. (BJ) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.06 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.83 per share. The company posted revenues of $5.1 billion surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.86%.

Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) posted soft second-quarter fiscal 2022 results as both the top and bottom lines declined year over year. Management slashed its overall guidance for fiscal 2022. Results were hurt by a tough macroeconomic landscape, increased inflation and sluggish consumer spending.

Consequently, shares of The Estée Lauder and BJ’s Wholesale increased 1.8% and 7.2% while shares of Kohl’s decreased 7.7%.

Economic Data

The Department of Labor reported that the weekly jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 250,000 for the week ended Aug 13. The consensus estimate was 263,000. Data for the week ended Aug 6 was revised downward to 252,000 from 262,000 reported earlier. The four-week average of initial claims decreased by 2,750 to 246,750, terminating the eight-straight weekly gains. However, continuing claims (those who have received government benefit at least one time and reported one week lag) rose by 7000 to 1.437 million.

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales fell 5.9% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million units. The consensus estimate was 4.87 million units. This is the weakest level of sales since May 2020. Excluding pandemic, sales were lowest since November 2015. The data for June was revised downward 5.11 million units from 5.12 million units reported earlier. [6]

Sources: [1][3][4] Stockcharts.com; [2] CNBC.com; [5] Dow slides 200 points, S&P 500 on pace to break 4-week win streak (cnbc.com); (cnbc.com); [6] Zacks Professional Services, “Today’s Key Market and Economic News” for Friday August 19, 2022; 

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